Investors in Vietnam ignored the old adage “sell in May and go away” as average daily trading volume surged to a record high of nearly USD260 million, far above the USD145 million seen in the Philippines. Positive macro-economic news, low YTD inflation of 0.37%, TPP-11 moving ahead, the visit of Vietnam’s Prime Minister to the US and improved outlooks from Moody’s and Fitch helped bolster market sentiment. Margin lending levels moved close to limits.
After steadily rallying from the beginning of 2017, the VN-Index corrected in the second half of April. Continuing the upward momentum from the beginning of 2017, the VNI rose to a fresh nine-year high on April 11 at 731.3 before falling to around 710. It then moved sideways for the next two weeks before slightly recovering in the last three trading sessions of the month. The rebound could be attributed to positive global and domestic news, including the US good initial Q1 results
Despite an interest rate hike by the US Fed, Vietnam stocks continued to rise, reaching a new nine-year high; VN30 reached its highest level ever as large-cap stocks increased. During the first half of March, real estate and industrial stocks, such as NVL, ROS, HBC and CII, drove market gains (+10 points to 717). However, when NVL and ROS were added to the MVIS Vietnam Index and FTSE Vietnam Index, respectively,
Vietnam’s equity market continued its steady move higher since mid-December and achieved a new nine-year high. The VN-Index started the Year of the Rooster on February 2 by closing above 700 for the first time since February 2008. Weak Q4 results of BHN, the third largest consumer ticker, disappointed investors and sent the index to its lowest level of the month, 700.04, on February 6.
The VN-Index enjoys solid gains in January and ended the month at a nine-year high. Vietnam’s equity market closed out the lunar Year of the Monkey at 697.28 on January 25, its highest level since February 2008 and up 4.9% from the end of 2016.
A quiet holiday season restrained market growth. The VN-Index ended 2016 at 664.72, falling 0.03% from end-November. This continued a downward trend from November, but with a smaller decline. Declining momentum started from the third week of November and ran through the first half of December as the index dropped to 651.49 on December 6, a two and a half month low, as foreign investors stepped up selling of large-cap names.
High foreign investment continued to drive Vietnam’s strong export growth and rising consumer strength in 2016. In spite of political uncertainties in the US, we believe that its economic strength will help to support Vietnam in 2017. The VN-Index was swayed by global trends throughout 2016, but finished with solid gains. 2017 may present some challenges if the US dollar continues to strengthen but macro stability should continue to support earnings growth. The real story,
The VN-Index dropped slightly in the aftermath of Trump’s victory. The VN-Index moved sideways without any significant fluctuations from the beginning of the month to November 23 when it reached its monthly peak of 683.16. Vietnam’s equity market thereafter incurred a sharp and steady drop by 3.6% to the bottom of the month at 658.26 on November 29.
Q3 earnings results failed to maintain investor confidence as market gave up all of its gains for the month. The VN-Index moved sideways within a range of 670-690 during the month, but was more inclined to a slight downtrend, finishing October at 675.8, down 1.45% from the end of September. Vietnam’s equity market incurred a MoM decrease for the first time since January 2016, triggered by Q3 results which failed to maintain investor conviction and prompted some profit taking.
The VN-Index recovered strongly in the second half of the month, achieving its highest level since February 2008, after ETF rebalancing put downward pressure on the market earlier in September. Vietnam’s equity market had a weak first half of the month, but finished the second half strongly. The VN-Index closed the month at 685.73, up 1.65% compared to the end of August, though that was the lowest MTD growth since April 2016. ETF’s periodic Q3 rebalancing, which ended in mid-September,