We remain optimistic that Vietnam’s GDP growth will accelerate in 2021 and that the structural outlook for the economy and the equity market remains bright — please see our Vietnam Strategy 2021 Report, published January 11, 2021, for more details. Following robust macro data for March and April and strong Q1 2021 earnings reports, we increase our year-end 2021 VN-Index target from 1,250 to 1,350 and our year-end 2022 target from 1,400 to 1,500. At its closing level of 1,256 on May 5
The VN-Index extended gains in April. The month started with positive macro news, including (1) the first shipment of more than 800,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine from the COVAX facility arriving in Vietnam and (2) Vietnam’s PMI (published by IHS Markit) hitting a 27-month high. The VN-Index also kicked off the month strongly as it increased 2.1% to close above 1,200 on the month’s first trading day and maintained an eight-session winning streak through April 7. The expansion of the Ho Chi Minh C
VN-Index briefly surpassed 1,200 before pulling back. Having failed to challenge the 1,200 technical level several times, the VN-Index (VNI) finally pushed above 1,200 on March 18, supported by (1) rallies in global markets supported by passage of the US government’s USD1.9tn stimulus package and (2) Moody’s positive rating action on Vietnam. However, the VNI quickly pulled back by around 3.3% on strong selling before rebounding toward the month end led by strong gains in banking stocks.
Vietnam’s stock market recovered strongly from a correction in late January. The VN-Index (VNI) tumbled after hundreds of COVID-19 cases were announced in late January. However, following a rally in global equity markets, the VNI rebounded in the first week of February before pulling back by nearly 4% on February 8 due to new COVID-19 cases confirmed in Ho Chi Minh City and profit taking pressure ahead of the long Tet Holiday. Positive performance from global markets, the Government’s effective
FOBI and re-emergence of COVID-19 caused correction. After closing 2020 at its highest level since April 2018, the VN-Index (VNI) continued its uptrend in the first half of January, gaining 8.2% to 1,194.2 on January 15 and extending its gain since the end of October to almost 30%. However, the VNI failed to surpass the 1,200 level after several attempts as ‘FOBI’ (fear of being invested) with the long lunar new year approaching led to profit-taking. The re-emergence of COVID-19 with 84 spread
Aggregate reported NPAT-MI for the 77 stocks under our coverage declined by 8% YoY in FY2020, beating our 2020F forecasts by 9%. Excluding the seven stocks under our coverage that are traded on UPCoM, aggregate reported NPAT-MI for our HOSE-listed coverage declined by just 3% YoY and was also 9% above our forecast.
While 2020 will be remembered for the disruption to economies and human suffering caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, unprecedented policy support and accelerated development of vaccines made the COVID-19 bear market one of the shortest in history. Primarily due to the swift containment of the virus, Vietnam’s economy and equity market delivered relatively strong performances — the latter despite substantial foreign net selling. Although we believe Vietnam has much to look forward to in 2021
Uptrend continued in December; VNI finished 2020 at its highest level since April 2018. Despite the US Treasury’s announcement labelling Vietnam as a currency manipulator that dampened market sentiment and caused a 1.4% drop on December 17, the VNI rebounded to gain 10% in December and finish 2020 at 1,103.9 points, marking a 14.9% gain for the year. The rally in December was driven by the ongoing recovery of the economy, a low interest rate environment and rising confidence given the successful
Improving corporate earnings in Q3 reinforced the VN-Index’s upward trend. The VNI surpassed 1,000 points on November 26 and then climbed to a one-year high of 1,010 on November 27 before retreating slightly at month-end. The VNI closed November at 1,003 points (+8.4% MoM) — the strongest monthly increase over the past three months. November’s gain helped the VNI to fully recover all of 2020’s losses and record a YTD increase of 4.4%. Other neighboring market indexes also enjoyed a positive mont
The VN-Index (VNI) reached its highest level in nine months following positive macro news and MSCI’s update. The VNI’s upward trend continued in the first three weeks of October and was supported by (1) the SBV’s rate cuts that came in effect on October 1, (2) positive Q3 economic results lifting expectations for improvements in Q3 company results, (3) the positive performance of the US stock market in the first half of the month — although President Donald Trump testing positive for COVID-19