We nudge up our target prices for our airline stock coverage and raise our rating on HVN to BUY from OUTPERFORM as we slightly lower our average Brent price assumption for 2019. Following our oil & gas team’s downward revision of our average in-house Brent assumption for 2019 (see here), we have increased our forecasts, all else equal, for the airline stocks we cover. While airlines are highly sensitive to oil prices (fuel costs account for around 27%-30% of the total costs of HVN and 40%-45% of
We lower our 2019 average Brent oil price base case assumption from USD70/bbl to USD65/bbl and maintain USD70/bbl for the longer term. A lower oil price assumption negatively impacts four of the seven stocks under our coverage in the oil & gas sector. For GAS, we cut our 2019 EPS forecast by 6.7% and target price by 2.4%. For PVD, we cut our 2019 EPS earnings forecast and target price by 6.8% and 3.1%, respectively.
We assume a temporary gas shortage in 2020 and 2021 due to a one-year delay of Sao Vang-Dai Nguyet gas field. Recently, GAS’s management shared that the operator of Sao Vang-Dai Nguyet (SV-DN) gas field has faced difficulties in executing the project and therefore the expected operation date could be delayed from Q4 2020 to Q4 2021 (early 2022).
Airline TPs broadly unchanged from slightly lower Brent price assumptions. Following our oil & gas team’s downward revision of our average in-house Brent assumptions (see here), we have revised our forecasts and target prices (TP) for the airline stocks we cover. While airlines are highly sensitive to oil prices (fuel costs account for around 30% and 40% of the total costs of HVN and VJC, respectively), we see a negligible impact on our TPs in this slightly lower average oil price scenario.
We lower our 2019 average Brent oil price base case assumption from USD75/bbl to USD70/bbl. A lower oil price assumption negatively impacts three of the seven stocks under our coverage in the O&G sector. For GAS, we cut our 2019 earnings forecast by 4.4% and target price by 4.6%. For PVD, we cut our 2019 earnings forecast and target price by 4.0% and 4.2%, respectively.
Strong momentum in both net interest income (NII) and non-interest income (NOII) in 9M 2018 offers investors an attractive entry point to take a more positive view of Vietnamese banks, especially in light of 21 months of strong earnings in the sector. NII across our coverage universe during 9M 2018 grew at 19.7% YoY and comes on top of strong CY2017 growth of 23.2%. NII constituted 75% of total operating income (TOI) in 2017.
Following our Oil & Gas team’s revision of our average in-house Brent price assumptions (see here), we have slightly revised down our forecasts and target price on airline stocks, all else equal. Fuel costs account for around 30% and 40% of HVN and VJC’s total costs, respectively. We note we have maintained our pass-through assumption (% of fuel cost rise that is passed-through to air fares) for both HVN and VJC. This is because HVN and VJC continue to enjoy a duopoly market landscape
We raise our oil price base case assumption for 2018 and 2019 to USD75/barrel. Oil supply is poised to be moderate over the next two years due to the following factors. First, OPEC and its allies met on September 23, 2018 to discuss the 1 million bpd production increase pledged on June 22, 2018, yet no immediate action was planned.
Quan điểm kỹ thuật: Tín hiệu kỹ thuật ngắn hạn của các chỉ số chứng khoán chủ chốt dịch chuyển từ Tích cực xuống Trung tính với ngưỡng kháng cự của VN-Index, VN30 và HNX-Index lần lượt nằm tại 1014 điểm, 988 điểm và 115,5 điểm. Trong khi đó, ngưỡng hỗ trợ MA20 của các chỉ số này đang lần lượt nằm tại 1004 điểm, 975 điểm và 114 điểm. Dự báo, thị trường có thể hồi phục nhẹ trong phiên tới và dao động giữa các ngưỡng hỗ trợ và kháng cự này. Mặc dù vậy, nhìn xa hơn thì có vẻ như thị trường với đại
The listing of Vietnam National Petroleum Group (PLX) in April 2017 as well as the recent equitization of Binh Son Refining & Petrochemical company (BSR) and PetroVietnam Oil Corporation (OIL) offer investors opportunities for exposure to a young and high-potential industry. Vietnam is thirsty for refined products. We estimate that Vietnam’s petroleum consumption CAGR will be 5.0% p.a. over the next five years, which is much higher compared to the global growth rate of 1.3% p.a. Such growth is