Long-term growth outlook is favorable. We expect non-life insurance premium growth between 12-15% CAGR in Vietnam between 2018 and 2023F. Our estimate of non-life insurance penetration at 0.82% in 2018 appears at a reasonable level relative to GDP per capita and the country’s regional peers. Therefore, we do not consider the market either under or over-penetrated and expect growth slightly ahead of nominal GDP growth as penetration increases going forward.
We presented a masterclass on Vietnam's power sector at our Vietnam Access Day investor conference last week. Please find our masterclass slides attached and key takeaways below: An electricity shortage has become more visible, promising great opportunities for power plants despite some risks for the economy. Competitive generation market price (CGM price) could increase due to worsening electricity shortage. CGM price cap increased 3.0% to VND1,318/kWh in 2019, the highest since
We presented a masterclass on Vietnam's oil & gas sector at our Vietnam Access Day investor conference last week. Please find our masterclass slides attached and key takeaways below: We believe PetroVietnam will develop a series of gas projects/LNG import projects. Substantial demand for gas (expected to triple over the next ten years) is the driver. Total capex of USD14bn for domestic gas projects and USD5bn of capex for LNG projects should bring jobs for O&G service providers over the next
We are pleased to provide our consumer sector masterclass presentation from the recent Vietnam Access Day conference: Vietnam is at an inflection point of accelerating household consumption, bolstered by a fast-growing middle-affluent class and high consumer confidence. Vietnam's middle-affluent consumer cohort is forecast to expand at a 5.5% CAGR during 2017-2030, tied with the Philippines for highest among the top ASEAN countries (excluding Singapore). Resultant secular consumer
We are pleased to provide our banking masterclass presentation from our recent Vietnam Access Day conference. We forecast above consensus bottom-line net profit growth for 2019 of 19.3% (and normalized net profit growth of 25.0%) for our banking coverage universe. EPS dilution at BID and VCB in 2019 results in a weighted EPS growth forecast of 17.4% for our coverage. We see retail-led loan book growth in 2018 continuing in 2019 and project a weighted NIM increase of 15 bps in 2018
We are pleased to provide our Industrials & Transportation masterclass presentation from our recent Vietnam Access Day conference.We have a bullish view on the long-term outlook for the sector, which we expect to benefit from a number of key structural trends. We expect long-term sector growth to be driven by growing manufacturing activity, the increasing industrialization and urbanization of Vietnam, a growing e-commerce market, and a growing aviation market. A key development
We presented a masterclass on Vietnam's construction materials sector at our Vietnam Access Day investor conference last week. Please find our masterclass slides attached and key takeaways below: Solid growth headroom for Vietnam’s construction materials consumption in the long term. Vietnam is becoming a galvanized steel heavyweight in the region. Protections for Vietnam’s steel industry should always remain an open option. Ongoing deeper vertical integration in local steel
We presented a masterclass on Vietnam's residential real estate sector at our Vietnam Access Day investor conference last week. Please find our masterclass slides attached and key takeaways below: 2018 residential transactions temporarily cooled as launches fell mainly due to lengthy legal procedures. HCMC showing signs of market overheating while Hanoi’s prices are muted. Oversupply is unlikely in HCMC market while Hanoi’s inventory pressure is mounting.
We nudge up our target prices for our airline stock coverage and raise our rating on HVN to BUY from OUTPERFORM as we slightly lower our average Brent price assumption for 2019. Following our oil & gas team’s downward revision of our average in-house Brent assumption for 2019 (see here), we have increased our forecasts, all else equal, for the airline stocks we cover. While airlines are highly sensitive to oil prices (fuel costs account for around 27%-30% of the total costs of HVN and 40%-45% of
We lower our 2019 average Brent oil price base case assumption from USD70/bbl to USD65/bbl and maintain USD70/bbl for the longer term. A lower oil price assumption negatively impacts four of the seven stocks under our coverage in the oil & gas sector. For GAS, we cut our 2019 EPS forecast by 6.7% and target price by 2.4%. For PVD, we cut our 2019 EPS earnings forecast and target price by 6.8% and 3.1%, respectively.