We downgrade TCM to MARKET PERFORM with a 5.0% total stock return. We cut our target price by 19% to reflect (1) higher-than-expected selling expenses and (2) an updated peer list to improve comparability. We forecast 2018 revenue and NPAT to grow by 5.0% and 10.5%, respectively, due to (1) a high base in 2017, (2) continued strong growth in export sales to Japan and (3) slow productivity improvement at its Vinh Long factory.