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VCB - VCB surprises to the upside on credit quality trends - Update

Our approach to analysing banks is that absolute numbers takes a backseat, relative numbers runs the show but trends in relative numbers makes or breaks our view. Numbers released by VnEconomy are specific enough for us to believe its veracity and the story here is that Group 2 loans at VCB are showing exceptional trends from 8.3% for YE13 to 7.2% for 3Q14 to 6.0% for YE14. Group 2 loans at VCB is in our view one of the best forward indicator for Vietnam’s economy and these are bullish trends.