NT2 [BUY +22.1%] - La Nina may taper-off in mid-2017, lifting volumes and CGM price - Update
We maintain our target price but upgrade to a BUY rating with 22.1% total return following the recent fall in share price. We lower our 2016 EPS growth forecast from -2.6% to -13.8% on expected weak Q4 volume. La Nina’s potential end in mid-2017 may offset a 9% input gas price rise vs previous estimate. We therefore improve our 2017 volume forecast to -5.6% YoY vs previous estimate of -12.4%. Potential upside from Nhon Trach power plant 3 license award provides a catalyst.