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HPG - HOLD - Falling interest rates and material price help bottom line but stock price fair at 1.5x book - Update

We forecast HPG’s net profit to jump by 54% in 2013 thanks to lower interest exp. and lower input costs. HPG’s ROE should increase from 12% in FY12 to 18% in FY13, which we think warrants an increase in our target PBR from 1x to 1.5x. This revision raises our target price to VND31,400. However, at the current price of VND28,400 and having returned 35% ytd, the stock’s valuation seems fair relative to regional producers trading in PBR range of 0.3x-1.2x.