BVH [U-PF -12.2%] - Valuations stretched, downgrading to UNDERPERFORM - Update
We downgrade BVH to UNDERPERFORM (from OUTPERFORM) with a TP of VND53,100 (from VND70,600) for a total 12.2% downside to the current price. The downgrade is driven by lower target multiples and a revamped valuation methodology. We expect insurance premium income to grow at 20% CAGR in 2016-2020F and the loss ratio to decrease from 35% in 2016 to 26.5% by 2020F. Smaller expected reserve expense growth: 35% y/y in 2016 moderating to 32% y/y for 2017F.