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BVH [O-PF +15.0%] - Strong top line growth and stable investment results - Update

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for BVH, but revise our TP by -3.6% because we expect a 5% dilution from the ESOP program at an assumed exercise price of VND15,000. We expect insurance premium income to grow strongly at 20% CAGR in 2016-2020 and the loss ratio to decrease from 37.5% in 2015 to 26.5% by 2020. Smaller expected reserve expense growth: 61% in 2014 vs 35% in 2016 and 20% in 2020 as the discount rate used for reserve calculation has already reached its low point. • Financi