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BMI [BUY+33.8%] - Solid underlying performance offset by earnings volatility - Update

We revise our target price down by 13% due to softer than expected premia growth, but maintain a BUY rating with 33.8% total return including a 3.2% dividend yield. Earnings volatility impacted 2017 results, which missed our estimates considerably due to relatively large provisioning and a much lower level of inward claims from reinsurance. We foresee net premia growing at 12% CAGR for 2017-2020, while the combined ratio is expected to stabilize at 95%.